9 Dec 2009, 0542 hrs IST, TNN
BANGALORE: IT buyers are expanding their global sourcing networks as part of an effort to reduce their dependence on a few large locations such
as India, says a new report by Everest Research Institute.
Recent events impacting offshore locations, such as terror attacks and typhoons, and suppliers (such as bankruptcies , frauds) have underscored the need for holistic risk management in global sourcing, the report says.
“Traditionally, global sourcing risk management approaches remained largely focused on engagement-level performance management. However, a more sophisticated approach to risk management compels buyers to understand risk from the entire sourcing ecosystem spanning each individual supplier and delivery location as well as the collective portfolio of suppliers and locations,’’ says the report.
The institute also says that another new global sourcing paradigm is emerging and generating additional push for creating a global delivery network.
“This new paradigm is associated with a more robust and complex demand profile that mandates a global delivery network and is creating further impetus for expanding the delivery footprint beyond the traditionally favoured offshore destination, India,” Everest says. A combination of these two factors is creating a demand for global locations that support technology and business process delivery. Clients now have a number of credible offshore destinations to choose from.
The report identifies these areas as Brazil, Central and Eastern Europe, Israel, Mexico, the Philippines and South Africa. These markets represent a blend of locations that are either superior skill markets or large talent markets that global sourcing buyers can’t ignore.
“The supplier landscape in these emerging markets includes a mix of global majors, India-centric suppliers expanding their delivery footprint, and domestic/regional suppliers that have roots in the emerging market. A handful of suppliers in this new category have acquired meaningful operating scale and, through investments in delivery capabilities and adopting industry best practices, successfully serve Global 1000 corporations,” the report says.
"....The greatest discovery of my generation is that a human being can alter his life by altering his attitudes of mind...."
Wednesday, December 09, 2009
All the RBI's men ...
Read this:
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/need-coordinated-exitglobal-stimulus-rbi_429483.html
Brief:
Even as the global economy — faced with the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression — is undergoing an unprecedented churn, what measures should India take to see to it that its steady growth march does not come to a grinding halt?
More importantly, what should India’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of India, do to ensure that the nation avoids committing the same mistakes that developed nations did — high debt, lack of regulation and over spending.
The respect for the Indian central bank has been mounting with each passing day among the fraternity of global economists for its prompt action before and during the global financial crisis, the men who helm — and helmed — the RBI engine sat down for an exclusive tête-à-tête with CNBC-TV18 to outline their views on the global and Indian economies and how the bank would be charting its course ahead in the field of policymaking.
On the occasion of the RBI’s 75th anniversary; RBI Governor D Subbarao along with former governors Bimal Jalan, YV Reddy and C Rangarajan spoke to Network18's Managing Director Raghav Bahl and CNBC-TV18 Banking Editor Latha Venkatesh.
The first volley thrown at the panel: How will the current global monetary policy — in terms of unprecedented stimuli issued — shape up and what would be its after effects?
See stimulus exit in a year
“I think the [global central banks’] response was appropriate and coordinated,” former governor Reddy began. “Given the type of challenges, it was better to be on the safer side and inject liquidity.” He said the next big challenge for central banks was to time an orchestrated global exit from the loose policy.
Rangarajan said that even as injection of stimulus to resuscitate the financial markets was an “extraordinary response to an extraordinary situation”, developed countries could not sustain the too much liquidity in the system for more than a year.
“This kind of extraordinary accommodation cannot continue for ever because the fiscal deficit of the United States is exceeding 10% and the policy rates being near zero will also cost problems for the United States in terms of the exchange rates,” he said. “Sooner or later, both the central banks and the government will have to act.”
Inflation no major concern
The present governor, Subbarao, said concerns of inflation rearing its head as a result of loose policy were “exaggerated”.
“Having said that, if oil prices shoot up, for example, there could be inflation from the supply side,” he said, which he added was a bigger a bigger threat than asset price inflation. He, however, admitted the danger of inflation was bigger than that of deflation in global economies going forward.
The central bankers also spoke on the disparity between the financial markets and real economy and said the debatable issue of capital controls must be seen on a case-to-case basis. “Capital inflows are, generally speaking, welcome particularly in a developing country. They go to build productive capacity but a distinction has to be made between types of capital flows,” Rangarajan said. “It could also go into speculative activities like raising prices of real estate or even crops.”
Subbarao said that during the time when the issue of participatory notes came up in 2007, there was “discussion and debate” within the RBI and the government.
“There was of course, differences on what needs to be done,” he recalled, “but I think we acted in coordination.”
"....The greatest discovery of my generation is that a human being can alter his life by altering his attitudes of mind...."
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/need-coordinated-exitglobal-stimulus-rbi_429483.html
Brief:
Even as the global economy — faced with the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression — is undergoing an unprecedented churn, what measures should India take to see to it that its steady growth march does not come to a grinding halt?
More importantly, what should India’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of India, do to ensure that the nation avoids committing the same mistakes that developed nations did — high debt, lack of regulation and over spending.
The respect for the Indian central bank has been mounting with each passing day among the fraternity of global economists for its prompt action before and during the global financial crisis, the men who helm — and helmed — the RBI engine sat down for an exclusive tête-à-tête with CNBC-TV18 to outline their views on the global and Indian economies and how the bank would be charting its course ahead in the field of policymaking.
On the occasion of the RBI’s 75th anniversary; RBI Governor D Subbarao along with former governors Bimal Jalan, YV Reddy and C Rangarajan spoke to Network18's Managing Director Raghav Bahl and CNBC-TV18 Banking Editor Latha Venkatesh.
The first volley thrown at the panel: How will the current global monetary policy — in terms of unprecedented stimuli issued — shape up and what would be its after effects?
See stimulus exit in a year
“I think the [global central banks’] response was appropriate and coordinated,” former governor Reddy began. “Given the type of challenges, it was better to be on the safer side and inject liquidity.” He said the next big challenge for central banks was to time an orchestrated global exit from the loose policy.
Rangarajan said that even as injection of stimulus to resuscitate the financial markets was an “extraordinary response to an extraordinary situation”, developed countries could not sustain the too much liquidity in the system for more than a year.
“This kind of extraordinary accommodation cannot continue for ever because the fiscal deficit of the United States is exceeding 10% and the policy rates being near zero will also cost problems for the United States in terms of the exchange rates,” he said. “Sooner or later, both the central banks and the government will have to act.”
Inflation no major concern
The present governor, Subbarao, said concerns of inflation rearing its head as a result of loose policy were “exaggerated”.
“Having said that, if oil prices shoot up, for example, there could be inflation from the supply side,” he said, which he added was a bigger a bigger threat than asset price inflation. He, however, admitted the danger of inflation was bigger than that of deflation in global economies going forward.
The central bankers also spoke on the disparity between the financial markets and real economy and said the debatable issue of capital controls must be seen on a case-to-case basis. “Capital inflows are, generally speaking, welcome particularly in a developing country. They go to build productive capacity but a distinction has to be made between types of capital flows,” Rangarajan said. “It could also go into speculative activities like raising prices of real estate or even crops.”
Subbarao said that during the time when the issue of participatory notes came up in 2007, there was “discussion and debate” within the RBI and the government.
“There was of course, differences on what needs to be done,” he recalled, “but I think we acted in coordination.”
"....The greatest discovery of my generation is that a human being can alter his life by altering his attitudes of mind...."
Monday, November 30, 2009
What ET says!!!
Auto:
The valuations in the auto sector stocks have gone up significantly during the last couple of quarters. Those invested in auto stocks at lower levels can book partial profits. However, those looking at taking fresh positions should be careful because the valuations of auto stocks are already stretched. The growth in sales could flatten going forward , and interest rates may also go up in the medium term.
Banking:
Stocks in the banking sector have been through a good rally during the last few weeks. The good results declared by large global banks have brought investor attention back to this sector.
The demand for retail loans picked up during the festival season. Those invested in bank stocks at lower levels can book partial profits.
IT:
The positive developments in the global economic conditions have kept the IT stocks in a bullish mode. These stocks are expected to do well as economic conditions improve in the developed markets. However, investors should track the dollar depreciation (rupee appreciation).
The sharp appreciation of the rupee against the dollar can play spoilsport in these stocks. Investors should go for stocks of large-cap companies that have a wider base and capability to hedge against sharp currency movements.
PSU:
The stocks of public sector units (PSUs) have come into the limelight due to talks of disinvestment in these companies. The government is also talking about the merger of some public sector banks. Investors should do their homework before taking any investment decisions.
The proposed disinvestment is not going to change anything from the control perspective of these PSUs and the money collected as part of this disinvestment will go mostly to the government.
Real-Estate:
The situation has definitely improved for companies in the real estate sector.
However, the stocks in this sector have shown high volatility due to their being sensitive to macroeconomic data on the global and domestic fronts.
There are many factors that directly or indirectly influence the movements in stocks of this sector.
Some of the main factors include data related to consumer confidence, raw material prices, job market data, interest rate data etc.
Investors with a longterm horizon can look at accumulating real estate stocks in correction phases.
Telecom:
The entry of new global players into the domestic telecom space has triggered a new tariff war.
The pricing pressure is quite visible in the recent results of leading telecom companies.
Although this is one of the fastest-growing mobile markets in the world with a huge potential for growth, investors should take a cautious approach on fresh positions in telecom stocks till the pricing war gets stabilised.
Investors with a longterm horizon and having telecom stocks in their portfolio should hold on to their positions, and look at averaging out at lower levels.
"....The greatest discovery of my generation is that a human being can alter his life by altering his attitudes of mind...."
The valuations in the auto sector stocks have gone up significantly during the last couple of quarters. Those invested in auto stocks at lower levels can book partial profits. However, those looking at taking fresh positions should be careful because the valuations of auto stocks are already stretched. The growth in sales could flatten going forward , and interest rates may also go up in the medium term.
Banking:
Stocks in the banking sector have been through a good rally during the last few weeks. The good results declared by large global banks have brought investor attention back to this sector.
The demand for retail loans picked up during the festival season. Those invested in bank stocks at lower levels can book partial profits.
IT:
The positive developments in the global economic conditions have kept the IT stocks in a bullish mode. These stocks are expected to do well as economic conditions improve in the developed markets. However, investors should track the dollar depreciation (rupee appreciation).
The sharp appreciation of the rupee against the dollar can play spoilsport in these stocks. Investors should go for stocks of large-cap companies that have a wider base and capability to hedge against sharp currency movements.
PSU:
The stocks of public sector units (PSUs) have come into the limelight due to talks of disinvestment in these companies. The government is also talking about the merger of some public sector banks. Investors should do their homework before taking any investment decisions.
The proposed disinvestment is not going to change anything from the control perspective of these PSUs and the money collected as part of this disinvestment will go mostly to the government.
Real-Estate:
The situation has definitely improved for companies in the real estate sector.
However, the stocks in this sector have shown high volatility due to their being sensitive to macroeconomic data on the global and domestic fronts.
There are many factors that directly or indirectly influence the movements in stocks of this sector.
Some of the main factors include data related to consumer confidence, raw material prices, job market data, interest rate data etc.
Investors with a longterm horizon can look at accumulating real estate stocks in correction phases.
Telecom:
The entry of new global players into the domestic telecom space has triggered a new tariff war.
The pricing pressure is quite visible in the recent results of leading telecom companies.
Although this is one of the fastest-growing mobile markets in the world with a huge potential for growth, investors should take a cautious approach on fresh positions in telecom stocks till the pricing war gets stabilised.
Investors with a longterm horizon and having telecom stocks in their portfolio should hold on to their positions, and look at averaging out at lower levels.
"....The greatest discovery of my generation is that a human being can alter his life by altering his attitudes of mind...."
Friday, November 06, 2009
Questions you should ask before buying/selling in a market...
- Is the stock amongst the high beta stocks (check volatility)
- Is the stock sensitive to change in interest rates and which way are the interest rates headed?
- How well is the sector (to which the stock belongs) performing?
- Has the stock shown some resistance in the face of a sharp rally or a sharp fall?
- How good is the management of the company? Does it instill confidence?
- How has been the performance of the company in the last 3 - 5 year period?
- Are MFs buying or selling the stock? Whether the better performing MFs holding this stock in their portfolio?
- Is the P/E ratio in a reasonable range?
- How good is the growth prospect of the sector to which the company belongs?
- What is the profit/loss % in the stock from which you want to exit? If profit is significant or loss is minimal, then you can think about exiting from the stock.
"....The greatest discovery of my generation is that a human being can alter his life by altering his attitudes of mind...."
- Is the stock sensitive to change in interest rates and which way are the interest rates headed?
- How well is the sector (to which the stock belongs) performing?
- Has the stock shown some resistance in the face of a sharp rally or a sharp fall?
- How good is the management of the company? Does it instill confidence?
- How has been the performance of the company in the last 3 - 5 year period?
- Are MFs buying or selling the stock? Whether the better performing MFs holding this stock in their portfolio?
- Is the P/E ratio in a reasonable range?
- How good is the growth prospect of the sector to which the company belongs?
- What is the profit/loss % in the stock from which you want to exit? If profit is significant or loss is minimal, then you can think about exiting from the stock.
"....The greatest discovery of my generation is that a human being can alter his life by altering his attitudes of mind...."
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Feeding on the greed and fear of the stock markets
Fearful or greedy about stocks? This might help
13 Oct 2009, 2031 hrs IST, AGENCIES
AMSTERDAM: It's said that greed pushes investors to buy stocks when they're overpriced, while fear drives sales when stocks are at or near a bottom.
With that in mind, Philips Electronics has teamed up with a prominent Dutch bank to develop a system of warning home traders when they're about to make a decision to buy or sell stocks while feeling overly emotional. It's called ``The Rationalizer,'' and a test model is on display at an innovation summit in Brussels this week.
It consists of an ``EmoBracelet'' that looks like it might come out of a science fiction film, and an light-emitting ``EmoBowl'' that rests near a trader's computer. The bracelet supposedly feels emotional states and sends radio signals to the bowl. As the user's feelings intensify, the bowl glows yellow, orange and finally red.
The emotion-detecting technology is a ``galvanic skin response sensor.''
``It's a very nice way of saying it measures the way you sweat,'' Philips' design arm director Geert Christiaansen said Tuesday.
He said the technique is surprisingly fast and accurate at detecting a person's overall emotional levels, though it doesn't distinguish between positive or negative feelings.
Paul Iske, who works for ABN Amro bank, said the system was favorably received by testers, and proved especially useful for men.
``Women are less emotional investors,'' he said. ``Men have too much attachment to the underlying assets. Women don't have that as much.''
The companies have no intention of getting a product onto shelves in time for Christmas.
``It's a demonstration model,'' Christiaansen said. ``You may see bits and parts of the design in many products, but not for years to come.''
13 Oct 2009, 2031 hrs IST, AGENCIES
AMSTERDAM: It's said that greed pushes investors to buy stocks when they're overpriced, while fear drives sales when stocks are at or near a bottom.
With that in mind, Philips Electronics has teamed up with a prominent Dutch bank to develop a system of warning home traders when they're about to make a decision to buy or sell stocks while feeling overly emotional. It's called ``The Rationalizer,'' and a test model is on display at an innovation summit in Brussels this week.
It consists of an ``EmoBracelet'' that looks like it might come out of a science fiction film, and an light-emitting ``EmoBowl'' that rests near a trader's computer. The bracelet supposedly feels emotional states and sends radio signals to the bowl. As the user's feelings intensify, the bowl glows yellow, orange and finally red.
The emotion-detecting technology is a ``galvanic skin response sensor.''
``It's a very nice way of saying it measures the way you sweat,'' Philips' design arm director Geert Christiaansen said Tuesday.
He said the technique is surprisingly fast and accurate at detecting a person's overall emotional levels, though it doesn't distinguish between positive or negative feelings.
Paul Iske, who works for ABN Amro bank, said the system was favorably received by testers, and proved especially useful for men.
``Women are less emotional investors,'' he said. ``Men have too much attachment to the underlying assets. Women don't have that as much.''
The companies have no intention of getting a product onto shelves in time for Christmas.
``It's a demonstration model,'' Christiaansen said. ``You may see bits and parts of the design in many products, but not for years to come.''
"....The greatest discovery of my generation is that a human being can alter his life by altering his attitudes of mind...."
Friday, October 23, 2009
The Journey of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala (I liked it...)
We have seen a 80% rise in the stock markets over the last one year, the highest pace in fact in the last eight years and one man saw this
happening. We are talking about the pied piper of the Indian stock markets, none other than Rakesh Jhunjhunwala. A journey which started with just Rs. 5000 has now moved to this place, RaRe Enterprises (Ra-Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, Re- Rekha Jhunjhunwala). Rakesh Jhunjhunwala spoke exclusively to ET Now of his experience with the markets and about his journey to the top.
When you first ventured into the stock markets, it must have been a huge gamble 20 years ago. You qualified as a CA, what made you take that step?
My father was also interested in stocks. When I was a young child, he and his friends would drink in the evening and discuss about the stock market. I would listen to them and one day I asked him why do these prices fluctuate. He told me to check if there is a news item on Gwalior Rayon in the newspaper, and if there was Gwalio Rayon's price would fluctuate the next day.
I found it very interesting and I got fascinated by stocks, I self-taught myself. My father told me to do whatever I wanted in life but at least get professionally qualified.
When you first ventured into the stock markets, it must have been a huge gamble 20 years ago. You qualified as a CA, what made you take that step?
My father was also interested in stocks. When I was a young child, he and his friends would drink in the evening and discuss about the stock market. I would listen to them and one day I asked him why do these prices fluctuate. He told me to check if there is a news item on Gwalior Rayon in the newspaper, and if there was Gwalio Rayon's price would fluctuate the next day.
I found it very interesting and I got fascinated by stocks, I self-taught myself. My father told me to do whatever I wanted in life but at least get professionally qualified.
I was always a reasonably good student so I took up chartered accountancy. In January 1985, I completed my CA. I told my father I wanted to go to the stock market. My father reacted by telling me not to ask him or any of his friends for money. He, however, told me that I could live in the house in Mumbai and that if I did not do well in the market I could always earn my livelihood as chartered accountant. This sense of security really drove me in life.
But your first real large investment was Sesa Goa, I am curious to understand Sesa Goa, a commodity company, what prompted you to invest in Sesa Goa?
Sesa Goa had a big fall because there was a depression in the iron ore industry and then prices for the next year had been considerably raised about 20-25%. The stock was available abysmally cheap around Rs. 25-26. There was a projection of a very good growth in profitability in the next year but nobody seemed to believe it.
When I saw the facts, I wanted to invest but I did not have capital. Between 1986 and 1989 I must have earned Rs 20-25 lakhs. After 1986, the market went into a big depression for two three years but I put that money in Tata Power and the Tata Power stocks became about 1100-1200.
Now I was worth Rs 50-55 lakhs. I bought 4 lakh shares of Sesa Goa in forward trading, worth Rs 1 crore. I sold about 2-2.5 lakh shares at Rs 60-65 and another 1 lakh at Rs 150-175. The prices then went up to Rs 2200 and I sold some shares. I did some other trading too. I had net worth of about Rs 2 - 2.5 crore.
Sesa Goa had a big fall because there was a depression in the iron ore industry and then prices for the next year had been considerably raised about 20-25%. The stock was available abysmally cheap around Rs. 25-26. There was a projection of a very good growth in profitability in the next year but nobody seemed to believe it.
When I saw the facts, I wanted to invest but I did not have capital. Between 1986 and 1989 I must have earned Rs 20-25 lakhs. After 1986, the market went into a big depression for two three years but I put that money in Tata Power and the Tata Power stocks became about 1100-1200.
Now I was worth Rs 50-55 lakhs. I bought 4 lakh shares of Sesa Goa in forward trading, worth Rs 1 crore. I sold about 2-2.5 lakh shares at Rs 60-65 and another 1 lakh at Rs 150-175. The prices then went up to Rs 2200 and I sold some shares. I did some other trading too. I had net worth of about Rs 2 - 2.5 crore.
Was there any point of time when you came close to thinking that this is not for you or was it always a goal from the beginning?
I would not say that I did not come to a point where I had doubts in my mind, but my family circumstances and the support of my parents and my wife and my brother always let me do what I wanted in life. As long as I was not risking anything which I had not made with my own hands and I was playing with my money, I thought it was fine.
Your mother insisted that stock market is for gamblers, your wife is saying that she is a good luck charm, there was perhaps some amount of family resistance when you started your entry into stocks.
I would not say there was some kind of resitance, there was only some kind of apprehension. They never stopped me from going, they only warned me. There can be no greater well wisher for me in life than my mother. My mother says every man’s luck is his woman.
People will laugh at me, but when they ask me to make a wish for the next life, I will say I want the same parents, same brother and sister, same wife, same friends.
Are you superstitious, to what extent do you feel that luck has something to do with it?
I would not say I am superstitious. When you acknowledge that you have been lucky or you have been successful because of circumstances which are not what you have done or created, then you get humility, you do you feel that I am what I am because of what I am. You feel you are what you are because a set of circumstances came together and those circumstances were not brought together only by you, they were also brought together by fate. For example if Rakesh Jhunjhunwala has earned some wealth in life, the fact that the index was 150 when he came here and today the index is 17500, is one of the biggest contributors of the creation of the wealth, yes.
Did you ever in your wildest dreams imagine that we would be at these levels?
When index was at 150 points I did not have so much idea of markets but surely in 2002-2003 I felt that markets will see levels and India will see prosperity which we can't imagine right now. I still hold that view.
What does Rakesh Jhunjhunwala do when he does want to take some time out, indulge himself, is there something you enjoy doing?
I enjoy reading, I enjoy watching food shows.
Are you a big foodie?
Yeah, look at my size. Basically my favourite food is street food. I love the Chinese food on the streets, also I love the dosa. I do not get the taste in the paav bhaji anywhere so I tell my wife and then we make it at home. I basically like relaxing, I do not do much physical activity.
Now we know three sides of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, investor, trader and businessman, you have got a fourth side also and a very prominent fourth side which is the philanthropist, the philanthropist Rakesh Jhunjhunwala because I have been told that you got big plans to construct a children’s home.
I would not call myself a philanthropist and all, it is too early but surely see, we must realise one thing that the giver of this wealth is God, do not think we have earned it because we are smart. Ultimate giver is God and it casts a duty on us that this wealth be used for good social purposes. So it is the aim and ambition of my life that a good portion of the wealth that I earn would be used for good social purposes.
The only sure income that I have is dividend income and I spend one third of my dividend income in charity and I hope to do that in future and also with time I would like to endow at least Rs. 500 crores to a foundation and really work on charitable activity.
Everyone knows that you are both a successful long term investor as well as a trader, how do you manage to balance both?
Short term trading is for short term gain. Long term trading is for long term capital formation. Trading is what gives you the capital to invest. My trading also helps my investing in the sense I use a lot of technical analysis for trading at times.
If the stock is overpriced, I should sell but my trading skills tell me that the stock can remain overvalued or get more overvalued. Hence, I hold on to my investments.
So, I think they complement each other in many ways but they are two distinct compartments totally.
You make investment decisions quickly and with a lot of conviction. We got examples how you made a decision to buy Praj or Matrix, that is unique. When you are investing long term money, you need to assess it, you need some time assessing.
See, one thing first of all, all assessments can only be made up to a point. You are investing in the future, the future is uncertain. So you cannot make any prediction of profits to any preision and you look at the opportunity; you look at the people managing, you look at the competitive ability.
If the margin of what you think the value is and if you think the future can be so great then why spend time assessing it. If I thought that Matrix profits are going to be hundred crores and Matrix market cap is 150 crores then what should I invest, what should I research and what should I think. So when the opportunity is so great...
It is interesting that some of your best ideas have come not because of insider information, not because of insider edge, they have come because of simple common sense and news which is there in public domain.
Yes, they have, because many a times the insiders themselves do not know what is happening. My idea is to credit the factors which drive the portfolio which are the opportunities, the competitive ability, the people, the valuation, the return on capital.
So if those circumstances are present then why will profits not arise.
Welcome back, Samvat 2065, Indian markets have given astonishing return of 80%. Where from here, this Diwali to next Diwali, do you see Indian markets?
I see very very very very bullish for the very very very long term. Bullish for the short term and maybe you could see a correction in the mid-term.
What extent of a correction could we see?
I wish I knew.
Have you made any large investments in the last three months?
I have not made large investments in the last three months because I have been fully invested right through the fall and right through the rise but I did make some investments in the last one or two years.
You have often indicated that it is important to buy but it is equally important to buy at a right price, are prices right?
Well, prices are right. There can be no generalisation, you know, look at the equity, you can still find investment opportunities at these price levels. In 2003 bull market, I made some of the best investments in which I made the largest money.
I made the investment in Praj Industries in January 2004 with the index of 5500 and it nearly doubled and I sold some part of it about 250 times appreciation even now.
Any area that you have been looking to exit or you think it is the right time to exit over the last few months or now?
As far as the exits are concerned, I keep buying-selling something, nothing substantial. The variability in my portfolio will not be more than 5% or 3%. Personally, I have decided that at some point of time, regardless of companies, looking at the macro, I am going to exit all my investments because the history of bull markets tells us that excesses go to such levels and to recapture them takes decades.
What are the biggest driving factors for the markets going ahead?
Well, driving factor for the market is that there is a transition from West to the East. We have good regulation, good trading platforms, there is mountain of savings; we are just going to go up every year driven by growth in GDP demographics, growth in financial markets.
The foreigners have no choice but they will invest where growth is 10%, I think that is what is driving markets.
Is that a case where next 12 to 24 months' earnings do not expand and PE multiples will expand?
I do not think so. I think earnings will expand faster than what people are anticipating and already none of the results have disappointed.
You have no exposure to real estate, very little exposure to technology and very little exposure again to commodities.
Well, I will not buy real estate even today. Look at the way you can get value for a stock by issuing an old stock and there is the continued circle to get constant earnings. It is speculation of the highest order.
What happens in real estate price discovery is most imperfect and I do not like the general real estate.
Although bullish in the residential real estate in India, I do not think there are models which are sustaining.
As far as technology is concerned, I think it is a mature industry. I am bearish on US dollar, I have large investment in the unlisted space. I have some exposure to commodities and I have a large investment in oil companies.
Maybe it was by design of accident, I missed the cement boom and I never invested again. I missed the cement boom in 2003-2004-2005. As far as other industries are concerned I was bullish on Tata Steel because of the Corus factor, but I did not buy.
So what would Rakesh Jhunjhunwala buy today?
Well, what I buy today and what I sell today is a matter of personal...
Which sector would you look at?
I would look at all India sensitive sectors, retailing, banking, infrastructure, pharma.
How do you see yourself, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, the family man, the investor or the businessman?
See, the only truth of life is death and that when I am going to die I would say boss, just leave me for three hours, I would buy one stock, I will do some trading, I will spend some time with my children, my wife, I will have two drinks and then you can burn me. So it has to be combination of everything.
"....The greatest discovery of my generation is that a human being can alter his life by altering his attitudes of mind...."
Tuesday, October 06, 2009
The Metal Pack (Source: BS)
While the run-up in prices have made metal stocks expensive, medium term prospects are unattractive due to weak demand and inventory pile-up.
The rally in domestic metal stocks is backed by the rise in metal prices, ranging from 30-100 per cent, since February 2009. Signs of a global economic recovery, surge in Chinese imports and weakness in the dollar had fuelled the rally in metal prices. This helped metal stocks move up higher than the broader markets. The BSE Metal index has gained 157 per cent against the 73 per cent rise in Sensex since January 2009. However, analysts now believe that the fortunes of the sector, although they remain intact from a longer term perspective, do not look attractive from the medium-term standpoint as metal prices are expected to correct following the recent rally and notably, the piling up of inventories (of non-ferrous metals at the London Metal Exchange; LME). Besides, there are worries regarding the recent global economic recovery, which may not be as strong as anticipated and might get prolonged. Last but not the least, metals stocks, too, are not attractive at current valuations. The BSE Metal index is trading at a price to book value of 2.37 times and PE of 15.18 times, which is higher as compared to its five-year average of 2.33 and 7.7 times, respectively. At current levels, share prices indicate that a lot of positives are already factored into valuations.
Industrial metals
Consequent to the demand destruction as a result of falling global economic activity, prices of non-ferrous metals dropped below their respective marginal cost of production and most companies opted to cut output. As a result, global non-ferrous metal production was cut by 10-15 per cent during April 2008 and February 2009. However, since then, demand has shown signs of revival on account of recovery in global industrial and economic activities. “People did not buy anything till 2008 and beginning of 2009, but as most government started spending too much of money to revive their economies, people have again started to buy and pile up inventories,” says Jim Rogers of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings and author of Hot Commodities.
The demand for industrial metals is closely linked with economic activity, which is why analysts believe that buying in metals started in the hope of an economic revival. The IMF, in its recent World Economic Outlook report, has projected world GDP growth of 3.1 per cent in CY2010. While it is significantly higher as compared to the 1.1 per cent decline projected in CY2009, it is still far from 5.2 per cent in CY2007. According to the data, the US, Europe, Japan and Russia are expected to see a strong recovery, but only in CY2010.
This is also a reason that most analysts believe that the long-term fundamentals of the metals sector are promising. However, from the near-term perspective as Tarang Bhanushali, analyst who tracks metals at India Infoline says, "Metal prices from here could consolidate within a range of about 10 per cent for some time given that China, which was earlier importing and building capacities have stopped doing so. Also, the new supplies (plants) which were earlier closed have (or will) come on stream due to the rise in metal prices.” This should restrict any rise in prices, unless global economic growth surprises on the upside.
"China’s imports are coming down, but in the rest of the world restocking is still happening in metals. As far as prices are concerned we do not think they will go up from these levels significantly, but at the same time there is little downside considering that metal prices are still trading at reasonable levels, which is marginally above the cost of production," says Rakesh Arora, who tracks the metals sector at Macquarie Securities.
“It is very unlikely that commodity prices will correct towards the low levels seen at the beginning of the year. This is mainly due to a combination of stabilising demand, ongoing stimuli, tight fundamentals and a weak dollar versus emerging market currencies," says Diego Parrilla, managing director and head of commodities-Asia Pacific, Merrill Lynch in an interview with Business Standard, last week.
Aluminium
Amongst the most widely used non-ferrous metals, aluminium has an edge over others as it will benefit the most in case of any revival in the global economy. Asia accounts for 43 per cent of world consumption, wherein economic growth is expected to be faster. According to IMF estimates, developing Asia’s GDP is expected to grow at 6.2 per cent in 2009 and 7.3 per cent in 2010. Also, the revival in automobile, packaging and construction sectors, which are the largest consumers of aluminium, as well as the demand from the power sector, would augur well for this metal. However, most of these benefits are seen accruing in CY2011, as major global economies are expected to see revival by end of CY2010. During 2009, despite an expected 6 per cent decline in world aluminium production to 37.25 million tonne, the surplus is expected to remain as consumption is expected to be lower at 34.63 million tonne. Also, analysts fear that spare capacities might be put to use in the near term if metal prices rise further. Any meaningful recovery in aluminium prices is seen only beyond CY2010; per tonne prices are expected to average at about $1,900-1,930 in CY2010 and $2,200 in CY2011, as compared to the current price of $1,850.
Copper & Zinc
Lower demand, a sharp cut in China’s copper imports recently, higher inventory at LME and over 100 per cent increase in copper prices since March 2009, are near-term concerns for copper prices. In CY2009, global copper production is expected to be lower by 3.6 per cent, but consumption is seen falling by 4.6 per cent. Copper fortunes are only seen improving in CY2010 when production and consumption are expected to grow at about six per cent each.
In CY2008, Zinc’s global consumption grew by 0.5 per cent as against 9.1 per cent rise in production. Even during January to July 2009, consumption fell by 10.77 per cent, while production slipped by a lower margin of 7.17 per cent. Thus, inventories have piled up from a low of 70,000 tonne in September 2007 to about 436,000 tonne currently. Despite this, zinc prices have been rising as China, which consumes about 30 per cent of global zinc production, continued to import and accumulate its inventory. However, as zinc prices are up 73 per cent since March this year and inventories have risen sharply, prices are expected to remain subdued going ahead. Also, slowing imports from China and incremental supplies coming at higher prices might cap zinc prices. Analysts estimate prices to trade at current levels of $1,855 per tonne during CY2010 and CY2011. Any recovery is only seen in CY2012, when prices are seen at about $2,125 per tonne.
Sterlite industries
Sterlite Industries’ edge is its low cost of production and any recovery should mean relatively more gains for the company. In copper, while refining margins have improved from their lows, it has signed long-term contracts at 67 per cent higher rates as compared to CY2008. This year, revenues are expected to drop by about 4-5 per cent given the lower realisations; in 2010-11 though, realisations are seen improving by over 25 per cent. More importantly, operating profit margins are expected to improve from 22.2 per cent in 2009-10 to 30 per cent in 2010-11 due to cost reduction, better realisations and contribution of power business. Sterlite will be commissioning a total of 2,500 mw of merchant power capacities by July 2010; of this 600 mw capacity is being commissioned in October 2009. The power business would contribute almost 30 per cent of earnings in 2010-11. Overall, revenues will also be aided by expansion of its zinc capacity by 2,10,000 tonne per annum and doubling of aluminium capacity at Balco, both by October 2010. On the sum of parts basis, analysts value the stock between Rs 750-850 per share due to its stake in different subsidiaries and cash in the books.
Hindalco Industries
Hindalco is a leading aluminium producer and among the low cost producers globally. The performance of Hindalco’s US subsidiary, Novelis (accounts for about 70 per cent of the consolidated sales), is seen improving as demand in two of its biggest markets (US and Europe) is stabilising. Due to steps towards lowering costs and the recent improvement in realisations, Novelis’ EBDITA per tonne is expected to improve from $83 per tonne in Q4 2008-09 to about $180 per tonne in 2009-10 leading to higher consolidated profitability. Overall, aluminium business is expected to do well with higher prices and volumes on account of expansion of capacities and higher shipments recorded by Novelis. Its copper business (26 per cent of revenues) is expected to report revenues in line with last year’s levels, given the lower demand and realisation (refining margins). Overall, while fundamentals are improving for the company, most of the gains are already reflected in its rich valuations.
Nalco
Nalco, another low cost producer of aluminium globally, has been able to grow in terms of volumes despite the depressed LME metal prices. The company reported 20.46 per cent growth in its production volumes in June quarter. It has increased its alumina and aluminium production capacities by 31 per cent to 2.1 million tonne, and by 28 per cent to 0.46 million tonne, respectively. Revenues are however, expected to be lower by about 9-10 per cent this year, due to lower metal prices. Analysts estimate LME prices to trade lower, which will also mean lower realisations for Nalco as it mostly deals in primary aluminium products, wherein prices closely track the trend in LME aluminium prices. Operating profit margins, too, are seen lower at 26.5 per cent as against the 32.9 per cent in 2008-09. Analysts expect its aluminium volumes to grow by about 10-15 per cent in 2010-11. Nevertheless, the stock is over-valued and more than factors in the positives.
Ferrous metal—Steel
Globally, about 60 per cent of steel is consumed by the US, Europe and China. The recent recovery in industrial activities of these countries is some good news for the sector. This is also evident from the increase in steel production from the lows of last year. “Globally, the demand has improved partly due to the fact that most of the inventories were depleted and people are once again buying to build their inventories led by marginal recovery seen in the end user industries,” says Manoj Kumar Agarwal, MD, Adhunik Metaliks. The recovery however, is not strong as global steel demand in CY2009 is expected to be lower by about 9-10 per cent and is seen recovering only in CY2010 by about 4-5 per cent.
The results are also seen in global steel prices, which corrected from $1,100 per tonne in July 2008 to a low of about $400 per tonne in May 2009, and are now up to $550 per tonne levels. However, prices are not expected to move up fast and are seen hovering around $600 in CY2010 as demand is yet to pick up on a sustainable basis. Steel companies also believe that only if coking coal and iron ore prices move up sharply (earlier levels of $300 and $200, respectively), then prices will move higher.
Tata Steel
While Tata Steel’s European subsidiary, Corus (accounts for almost 80 per cent of consolidated revenues), incurred losses in June 2009 quarter, on the back of an expected revival in European economies, it is likely to do well. Corus’ capacity utilisation is expected to go up from 53 per in June 2009 to 70 per cent this year and about 80 per cent in 2010-11. Besides, recovery in steel prices along with measures to curtail production costs by $1.2 billion at Corus should help improve margins. While Corus reported an operating loss of $117 per tonne, it is now expected to report profits in 2009-10 and 2010-11 adding significantly to Tata Steel’s consolidated performance.
Tata Steel’s domestic operations are growing with strong volumes, however realisations are lower compared to last year. Its advantage of low cost of production and focus on long products has helped tap the emerging demand from the domestic infrastructure sector. Its steel volumes were up by about 22 per cent in quarter ended June 2009. Though fundaments are improving, analysts feel that the share price is up significantly and the stock can only be considered from a two year perspective on the hope that global economies recover as anticipated.
SAIL
SAIL largely sells its produce in the domestic market, which is also a reason that it is relatively insulated from the slowdown as local demand has been relatively better. However, its realisations will be lower this year, and thus, its revenues are expected to fall by 10-12 per cent. Positively, lower raw material costs (average coal cost was over $250 per tonne in 2008-09 and is expected to be $150 per tonne in 2009-10; it was $185 in June 2009 quarter) mean that operating profits should be slightly higher this year. The larger benefits will be post 2012, as its current capacities will go up from 11.4 million tonne to 20.2 million tonne by March 2012. Analysts believe valuations are not cheap.
JSW Steel
The recent recovery in steel demand and prices along with higher production and cost savings (led by lower coking coal and iron ore prices) have proved positive for JSW Steel, whose share prices has risen by 250 per cent since January 2009. JSW has recently added 2.8 million tonne of new crude steel capacity, taking its total capacity to 7.8 million tonnes. It is further expanding its capacities by 10 million tonnes by March 2011. Due to higher capacity JSW Steel has projected a 78 per cent growth in sales volumes at 6.1 million tonne for 2009-10. While analysts expect the volume growth to range 60-65 per cent, they believe it will not translate into revenue and profit growth, as realisations would be lower compared to last year. In 2008-09, average realisations were Rs 37,117 per tonne and are projected to come down to Rs 26,000-28,000 per tonne in 2009-10, due to lower steel prices. At the current levels, the stock is expensive.
"....The greatest discovery of my generation is that a human being can alter his life by altering his attitudes of mind...."
The rally in domestic metal stocks is backed by the rise in metal prices, ranging from 30-100 per cent, since February 2009. Signs of a global economic recovery, surge in Chinese imports and weakness in the dollar had fuelled the rally in metal prices. This helped metal stocks move up higher than the broader markets. The BSE Metal index has gained 157 per cent against the 73 per cent rise in Sensex since January 2009. However, analysts now believe that the fortunes of the sector, although they remain intact from a longer term perspective, do not look attractive from the medium-term standpoint as metal prices are expected to correct following the recent rally and notably, the piling up of inventories (of non-ferrous metals at the London Metal Exchange; LME). Besides, there are worries regarding the recent global economic recovery, which may not be as strong as anticipated and might get prolonged. Last but not the least, metals stocks, too, are not attractive at current valuations. The BSE Metal index is trading at a price to book value of 2.37 times and PE of 15.18 times, which is higher as compared to its five-year average of 2.33 and 7.7 times, respectively. At current levels, share prices indicate that a lot of positives are already factored into valuations.
Industrial metals
Consequent to the demand destruction as a result of falling global economic activity, prices of non-ferrous metals dropped below their respective marginal cost of production and most companies opted to cut output. As a result, global non-ferrous metal production was cut by 10-15 per cent during April 2008 and February 2009. However, since then, demand has shown signs of revival on account of recovery in global industrial and economic activities. “People did not buy anything till 2008 and beginning of 2009, but as most government started spending too much of money to revive their economies, people have again started to buy and pile up inventories,” says Jim Rogers of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings and author of Hot Commodities.
The demand for industrial metals is closely linked with economic activity, which is why analysts believe that buying in metals started in the hope of an economic revival. The IMF, in its recent World Economic Outlook report, has projected world GDP growth of 3.1 per cent in CY2010. While it is significantly higher as compared to the 1.1 per cent decline projected in CY2009, it is still far from 5.2 per cent in CY2007. According to the data, the US, Europe, Japan and Russia are expected to see a strong recovery, but only in CY2010.
This is also a reason that most analysts believe that the long-term fundamentals of the metals sector are promising. However, from the near-term perspective as Tarang Bhanushali, analyst who tracks metals at India Infoline says, "Metal prices from here could consolidate within a range of about 10 per cent for some time given that China, which was earlier importing and building capacities have stopped doing so. Also, the new supplies (plants) which were earlier closed have (or will) come on stream due to the rise in metal prices.” This should restrict any rise in prices, unless global economic growth surprises on the upside.
"China’s imports are coming down, but in the rest of the world restocking is still happening in metals. As far as prices are concerned we do not think they will go up from these levels significantly, but at the same time there is little downside considering that metal prices are still trading at reasonable levels, which is marginally above the cost of production," says Rakesh Arora, who tracks the metals sector at Macquarie Securities.
“It is very unlikely that commodity prices will correct towards the low levels seen at the beginning of the year. This is mainly due to a combination of stabilising demand, ongoing stimuli, tight fundamentals and a weak dollar versus emerging market currencies," says Diego Parrilla, managing director and head of commodities-Asia Pacific, Merrill Lynch in an interview with Business Standard, last week.
Aluminium
Amongst the most widely used non-ferrous metals, aluminium has an edge over others as it will benefit the most in case of any revival in the global economy. Asia accounts for 43 per cent of world consumption, wherein economic growth is expected to be faster. According to IMF estimates, developing Asia’s GDP is expected to grow at 6.2 per cent in 2009 and 7.3 per cent in 2010. Also, the revival in automobile, packaging and construction sectors, which are the largest consumers of aluminium, as well as the demand from the power sector, would augur well for this metal. However, most of these benefits are seen accruing in CY2011, as major global economies are expected to see revival by end of CY2010. During 2009, despite an expected 6 per cent decline in world aluminium production to 37.25 million tonne, the surplus is expected to remain as consumption is expected to be lower at 34.63 million tonne. Also, analysts fear that spare capacities might be put to use in the near term if metal prices rise further. Any meaningful recovery in aluminium prices is seen only beyond CY2010; per tonne prices are expected to average at about $1,900-1,930 in CY2010 and $2,200 in CY2011, as compared to the current price of $1,850.
Copper & Zinc
Lower demand, a sharp cut in China’s copper imports recently, higher inventory at LME and over 100 per cent increase in copper prices since March 2009, are near-term concerns for copper prices. In CY2009, global copper production is expected to be lower by 3.6 per cent, but consumption is seen falling by 4.6 per cent. Copper fortunes are only seen improving in CY2010 when production and consumption are expected to grow at about six per cent each.
In CY2008, Zinc’s global consumption grew by 0.5 per cent as against 9.1 per cent rise in production. Even during January to July 2009, consumption fell by 10.77 per cent, while production slipped by a lower margin of 7.17 per cent. Thus, inventories have piled up from a low of 70,000 tonne in September 2007 to about 436,000 tonne currently. Despite this, zinc prices have been rising as China, which consumes about 30 per cent of global zinc production, continued to import and accumulate its inventory. However, as zinc prices are up 73 per cent since March this year and inventories have risen sharply, prices are expected to remain subdued going ahead. Also, slowing imports from China and incremental supplies coming at higher prices might cap zinc prices. Analysts estimate prices to trade at current levels of $1,855 per tonne during CY2010 and CY2011. Any recovery is only seen in CY2012, when prices are seen at about $2,125 per tonne.
Sterlite industries
Sterlite Industries’ edge is its low cost of production and any recovery should mean relatively more gains for the company. In copper, while refining margins have improved from their lows, it has signed long-term contracts at 67 per cent higher rates as compared to CY2008. This year, revenues are expected to drop by about 4-5 per cent given the lower realisations; in 2010-11 though, realisations are seen improving by over 25 per cent. More importantly, operating profit margins are expected to improve from 22.2 per cent in 2009-10 to 30 per cent in 2010-11 due to cost reduction, better realisations and contribution of power business. Sterlite will be commissioning a total of 2,500 mw of merchant power capacities by July 2010; of this 600 mw capacity is being commissioned in October 2009. The power business would contribute almost 30 per cent of earnings in 2010-11. Overall, revenues will also be aided by expansion of its zinc capacity by 2,10,000 tonne per annum and doubling of aluminium capacity at Balco, both by October 2010. On the sum of parts basis, analysts value the stock between Rs 750-850 per share due to its stake in different subsidiaries and cash in the books.
Hindalco Industries
Hindalco is a leading aluminium producer and among the low cost producers globally. The performance of Hindalco’s US subsidiary, Novelis (accounts for about 70 per cent of the consolidated sales), is seen improving as demand in two of its biggest markets (US and Europe) is stabilising. Due to steps towards lowering costs and the recent improvement in realisations, Novelis’ EBDITA per tonne is expected to improve from $83 per tonne in Q4 2008-09 to about $180 per tonne in 2009-10 leading to higher consolidated profitability. Overall, aluminium business is expected to do well with higher prices and volumes on account of expansion of capacities and higher shipments recorded by Novelis. Its copper business (26 per cent of revenues) is expected to report revenues in line with last year’s levels, given the lower demand and realisation (refining margins). Overall, while fundamentals are improving for the company, most of the gains are already reflected in its rich valuations.
Nalco
Nalco, another low cost producer of aluminium globally, has been able to grow in terms of volumes despite the depressed LME metal prices. The company reported 20.46 per cent growth in its production volumes in June quarter. It has increased its alumina and aluminium production capacities by 31 per cent to 2.1 million tonne, and by 28 per cent to 0.46 million tonne, respectively. Revenues are however, expected to be lower by about 9-10 per cent this year, due to lower metal prices. Analysts estimate LME prices to trade lower, which will also mean lower realisations for Nalco as it mostly deals in primary aluminium products, wherein prices closely track the trend in LME aluminium prices. Operating profit margins, too, are seen lower at 26.5 per cent as against the 32.9 per cent in 2008-09. Analysts expect its aluminium volumes to grow by about 10-15 per cent in 2010-11. Nevertheless, the stock is over-valued and more than factors in the positives.
Ferrous metal—Steel
Globally, about 60 per cent of steel is consumed by the US, Europe and China. The recent recovery in industrial activities of these countries is some good news for the sector. This is also evident from the increase in steel production from the lows of last year. “Globally, the demand has improved partly due to the fact that most of the inventories were depleted and people are once again buying to build their inventories led by marginal recovery seen in the end user industries,” says Manoj Kumar Agarwal, MD, Adhunik Metaliks. The recovery however, is not strong as global steel demand in CY2009 is expected to be lower by about 9-10 per cent and is seen recovering only in CY2010 by about 4-5 per cent.
The results are also seen in global steel prices, which corrected from $1,100 per tonne in July 2008 to a low of about $400 per tonne in May 2009, and are now up to $550 per tonne levels. However, prices are not expected to move up fast and are seen hovering around $600 in CY2010 as demand is yet to pick up on a sustainable basis. Steel companies also believe that only if coking coal and iron ore prices move up sharply (earlier levels of $300 and $200, respectively), then prices will move higher.
Tata Steel
While Tata Steel’s European subsidiary, Corus (accounts for almost 80 per cent of consolidated revenues), incurred losses in June 2009 quarter, on the back of an expected revival in European economies, it is likely to do well. Corus’ capacity utilisation is expected to go up from 53 per in June 2009 to 70 per cent this year and about 80 per cent in 2010-11. Besides, recovery in steel prices along with measures to curtail production costs by $1.2 billion at Corus should help improve margins. While Corus reported an operating loss of $117 per tonne, it is now expected to report profits in 2009-10 and 2010-11 adding significantly to Tata Steel’s consolidated performance.
Tata Steel’s domestic operations are growing with strong volumes, however realisations are lower compared to last year. Its advantage of low cost of production and focus on long products has helped tap the emerging demand from the domestic infrastructure sector. Its steel volumes were up by about 22 per cent in quarter ended June 2009. Though fundaments are improving, analysts feel that the share price is up significantly and the stock can only be considered from a two year perspective on the hope that global economies recover as anticipated.
SAIL
SAIL largely sells its produce in the domestic market, which is also a reason that it is relatively insulated from the slowdown as local demand has been relatively better. However, its realisations will be lower this year, and thus, its revenues are expected to fall by 10-12 per cent. Positively, lower raw material costs (average coal cost was over $250 per tonne in 2008-09 and is expected to be $150 per tonne in 2009-10; it was $185 in June 2009 quarter) mean that operating profits should be slightly higher this year. The larger benefits will be post 2012, as its current capacities will go up from 11.4 million tonne to 20.2 million tonne by March 2012. Analysts believe valuations are not cheap.
JSW Steel
The recent recovery in steel demand and prices along with higher production and cost savings (led by lower coking coal and iron ore prices) have proved positive for JSW Steel, whose share prices has risen by 250 per cent since January 2009. JSW has recently added 2.8 million tonne of new crude steel capacity, taking its total capacity to 7.8 million tonnes. It is further expanding its capacities by 10 million tonnes by March 2011. Due to higher capacity JSW Steel has projected a 78 per cent growth in sales volumes at 6.1 million tonne for 2009-10. While analysts expect the volume growth to range 60-65 per cent, they believe it will not translate into revenue and profit growth, as realisations would be lower compared to last year. In 2008-09, average realisations were Rs 37,117 per tonne and are projected to come down to Rs 26,000-28,000 per tonne in 2009-10, due to lower steel prices. At the current levels, the stock is expensive.
"....The greatest discovery of my generation is that a human being can alter his life by altering his attitudes of mind...."
Friday, January 09, 2009
'The past and The present'
Truly spesaking, its been a whirlwind journey after marriage. The honeymoon trip to Manali was very memorable. And thereafter, started a life with loads of responsibilities. Not that I shirk them but yes, the carefree attitude had to go out of the window.
However, the sense of togetherness brings with it lots of joy and happiness. And that is what I been lucky to witness in the company of my wife.
One of the milestones of Rupanjali's career was reached when she successfully enrolled herself for the PhD program towards the last week of January, 2008. The next milestone was that of her paper being published in the Malaria journal in September, 2009. By this time, I had also slipped into the comfort zone at Alcatel-Lucent.
But apart from all these, there was another lingering thought that was running through our minds; and that was about the joys of the impending parenthood and the responsbilities that it would bring along. An anxious wait throughout the month of October gave wa
y to the birth of 'Sayantan' on the 5th of November, 2008. And wasn't it a great feeling to have him with us!!! Slowly but surely Sayantan has grown from a tiny tot to a more grown up one, if I may say so. But this hasn't come about without many a nightouts for the two of us. Now Rupanjali has surely started to understand his whims and fancies. For all his snaps uploaded till date, visit: http://picasaweb.google.com/saikat.chaudhuri/OurSonDeep#
y to the birth of 'Sayantan' on the 5th of November, 2008. And wasn't it a great feeling to have him with us!!! Slowly but surely Sayantan has grown from a tiny tot to a more grown up one, if I may say so. But this hasn't come about without many a nightouts for the two of us. Now Rupanjali has surely started to understand his whims and fancies. For all his snaps uploaded till date, visit: http://picasaweb.google.com/saikat.chaudhuri/OurSonDeep#While I write this blog, my wife and my son are hundreds of miles away. And the longing for them in my heart grows by each passing day. Another 13 days to go before I catch up with them once again. And wouldn't it be a joyful re-union then!!!
"....The greatest discovery of my generation is that a human being can alter his life by altering his attitudes of mind...."
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